How can we prepare if nobody can tell us where we are going?

Recently, the Energy Information Administration released the early release of the Annual Energy Outlook 2014.  In it, the following chart predicts what we can consider the future of energy consumption by source over the next twenty-five years or so:

US Total Energy Use by Type (quadrillion BTU)

With the following projection for the breakdown of energy use for electricity generation:

US Total Electricity Generation by Source (terawatt-hours)

Paying close attention to the electricity chart shows that after a 3% gain in share of energy production by renewable energy in the first twelve years of this century, over the next twenty-six years, we should expect....

Only 4% more.

And after coal has dropped by 15% over the same timeframe, it will continue its drop for another...

Whopping 5%.

Regardless of your point of view on coal and renewable energy sources, this should make no sense.  In a good analysis of the subject, this CleanTechnica blog post notes that the assumptions in the EIA Outlook lock in any policy currently codified in law (like subsidies and tax credits for fossil fuels), and assume that any policies or laws that need reauthorization (like the Production Tax Credits for wind and solar, or research grant programs for renewable energy) will expire without renewal.

Note also, that although the last five years have seen a relatively flat oscillation of total energy use, the next twenty-five years picks up the steep increase in total energy use that accompanies a projected increase of population (but an assumed stagnation in the per capita energy use).

If we follow some more likely scenarios, including:

1. Although population will continue to increase, at worst, we should expect energy use to remain approximately flat, because in either an economic recovery or continued sluggishness, increased costs of living will force the elimination of some expenses in order to survive, and energy is one of the few costs we can avoid with good planning.
2. As US car manufacturers meet new CAFE standards, as the number of electric vehicles increases, and as people continue to drive fewer miles per unit of GDP, usage of oil will continue to drop on its current trajectory.
3. The costs to maintain and build new coal and nuclear plants will continue to out downward pressure on the capacity of both in the electricity market.
4. Because of the amount of new natural gas generating capacity being brought on line, and the continued reliance on it for heating fuel in most of the country, we should expect it will remain a significant piece of our energy portfolio for the first half of this century (even though we could eliminate it over this timeframe easily).
5. Economics tells us that with the number and size of companies getting into the renewable energy markets, and with policies focused on energy production and not the production of goods (like turbines and solar panels), that politicians will not be able to whimsically eliminate the currently "temporary" subsidies for renewables...at least not while maintaining permanent ones for fossil fuels.  Although wind will not maintain it's meteoric rise of the past fifteen years, it will continue to grow, and solar can and will sustain an accelerated growth pattern for at least ten to fifteen years as new materials and improvements in efficiency continue.

With all of these in play, the future looks more like this:

Projected US Total Energy Consumption by Source (quadrillion BTU)

If you do not believe me, then look to the markets.  Investment banks like Goldman are bearish on new coal investments, while power suppliers in the Midwest are investing in wind and solar over natural gas.  The assumptions made to get to the modified projection do not assume imposition of a carbon tax or cap-and-trade policy, one that most corporate leaders see on the horizon.  With that sort of policy in practice, we can expect even greater reductions in coal and natural gas, with compensating increases in energy efficiency and renewables.  Note that the project above is not my opinion on what can be done, merely what appears likely to come about based upon trends.  We can eliminate all but a fraction of fossil fuel use in the next eleven years, with the economic benefits that come with it, if we so choose.

I would like to see more thought put into these projections.  I understand the need to show what will happen if we do nothing, but it does not help the public discourse to hide what will likely happen if we keep working on the path we have over the last twenty years.  We are on the right path, and the momentum favors a clean energy future...the only questions that remain are how quickly we will get there, and will it be soon enough?  Our national projections, the ones that garner all the media attention, should show what can happen if we do nothing, what will happen if trends continue, and what can happen if we do even more.