Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Flashes: July 31, 2013


  • I talk frequently about the huge concern we should all have about not only adding 2 billion people to the planet in 40 years, but also adding another 3 billion of our existing world population to the rolls of those living a "developed" lifestyle.  Looking at the world development indicators, Chinese per capita energy use doubled between 2000 and 2010, from around 900 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) to around 1800 kgoe.  The current American per capital energy use sits around 7,200 kgoe.  What happens if a billion people quadruple their energy consumption in the next forty years?
  • Those same set of indicators show that after a "re-peak" in American usage at about 8,000 kgoe in 2000 (the highest peak since 1960 was seen in 1978 at nearly 8,500 kgoe before dropping to 7,200 kgoe in 1983), we saw a sharp decline from 2007 to 2009 by nearly 10% from 7,800 kgoe to 7,100 kgoe.  We are hovering there over the past two years, and hopefully we can continue moving downward and join other developed nations at a level near 2,000 kgoe where renewable energy should be able to cost effectively handle our needs.
  • As of 2011, a total of 36 states sit above that average of 7,200 kgoe (including my home state of Illinois).  It is an odd combination of Northeastern states (NY, MA, NJ, NH), warm weather states (FL, AZ, HI), and traditionally energy conscious states (CA, OR) that make up the states with below-average usage.  Right now, with absolutely no change in quality of life, our average should have little problem dropping to 4,600 kgoe (NY), 5,200 kgoe (CA) or even 5,500 kgoe (FL).
  • We have been hearing about how the energy market for fossil fuels is changing thanks to fracking for natural gas.  It is interesting to note that after reaching a peak in July 2008 of nearly $11 per thousand cubic feet peaking after a climb from 2000 (not surprisingly coinciding with the rise in Chinese energy use), the price plummeted to just under $3 in 14 months.  Since then, the increase in production dropped the price to under $2 in 2012, but that price has since increased by 75% to nearly $3.50.  The next three years hold the key to whether this $2-4 gas is the norm, or whether, as populations increase and demands on fuels increase, prices rebound to $10.
Enjoy the journey!

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Turning the opponents turf into home field advantage in the struggle on climate change

Do not think for a minute that in selecting Harvard for the first major speech of her tenure, Gina McCarthy - new Environmental Protection Agency administrator - made a whimsical decision.  After suffering through one of the longest, and in the end pointless, confirmation processes on record, Administrator McCarthy signaled one of the important tenets of her vision for the agency:

Addressing environmental concerns is good for business, and more specifically for American business.

In her speech today, as reported by Mark Drajem in Bloomberg, Ms. McCarthy makes the statement most practical members of the environmental movement have chanted for years:
"[Investing in solutions to climate change] will, in turn, fuel the complementary goals of turning America into a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing."
She goes on to say,
"Can we stop talking about environmental regulations killing jobs? Please, at least for today," she said during remarks at Harvard Law School. "We need to cut carbon pollution to grow jobs. We need to cut carbon pollution to strengthen the economy. Let's talk about it positively. Let's approach this as an opportunity of a lifetime. There are too many lifetimes at stake."
Add to this that companies cannot outsource jobs associated with addressing climate change, that the funding to address climate change only requires us to shift expenditures from a less national and jobs-dense sector of the environment (energy and utilities) to more American and jobs-rich sectors (construction and manufacturing), and that addressing climate change improves health and quality of life, and you have the most logical win-win-win in American history.

The only losers are energy companies who do not have the sense to adapt.  However, in the debate over the past decade, that group has had the most money, and therefore the loudest voice and the most political muscle - as President Obama and Ms. McCarthy found out.  By framing the argument as a question of what is best for American business, best for the national economy, and best for quality of life in America, the new leader of the EPA showed she knew where this battle will be fought....

And gave me hope that she knows how to win it.

Monday, July 29, 2013

The trouble with travel

For those not familiar with the myth of Sisyphus, the gods punished the king of Ephyra for deceitfulness by forcing him for eternity to roll a boulder up a hill only to have it roll back downhill requiring him to start over again.  For eternity.  For those of us that try to manage the pollution associated with our lives, we run into a similarly frustrating circumstance every time we consider traveling to another part of the country for work, vacation, or family.  All the effort we put into reducing carbon and other emissions throughout our daily lives can be obliterated by one trip to another part of the country.

According to the EPA, the average American home generates 124,500 pounds (27.91 mtons) per year through energy consumption and waste disposal, while a family of six adds another 66,000 pounds (15.0 mtons) per year for food, and about 50,000 pounds (11.3 mtons) per year for daily transportation.  If the typical American household reduces this impact of almost 55 tons per year by as much as ten percent in a given year, they still could find most of that 5.5 tons reduction replaced by 3.63 tons of carbon for a trip by flight halfway across the country.

So what can we do?

First and foremost, we can do as much as possible at our homes.  Significantly reducing energy use, entering into contracts to buy electricity from all renewable sources instead of coal, nuclear, and natural gas can have a major impact.  Many states and utilities have programs to help homeowners afford improvements to their homes that can make marked reductions in the need for heating, cooling and lighting (the major uses of energy in the home).  In our home, we replaced two-thirds of the windows with double-pane and sealed those that we did not or could not replace.  We replaced every light bulb with a compact fluorescent seven years ago, and the net change was to drop our energy use by about forty percent.  As a result, using the EPA greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions calculator, our homes yearly greenhouse gas emissions total a little over 34,000 pounds (7.62 mtons) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) per year (compared with the 27.9 mtons for the typical home).

Now for travel, as an example, we recently took a trip to New York City to visit family and look at colleges for my teenagers.  We had a couple of options to get there: drive, fly, train; and a couple of options when we arrived: rent a car or take the subway (obviously neither of these were necessary if we drove).  We compared the environmental impact, cost, and risk associated with all the options, with the following results:

Environmental
(According to the Carbon Footprint calculator)
Driving = 0.71 tons of carbon for 1580 miles of driving
Flying = 3.63 tons of carbon for flight from Chicago to LaGuardia (six passengers)
Train = 1.99 tons of carbon for 1580 miles of travel (six passengers)
Hotel = 0.02 tons of carbon for two days (required only if driving)
Driving in NYC = 36 kg per day (50 miles/day...0.13 tons for the week)
Subway in NYC = 22 kg per day (40 miles/day for six passengers...0.08 tons for the week)

Note:  Assumes that the days spent in the apartment equal a typical summer usage for our house, and that a hotel would be similar.

Transportation
6 travelers
Driving:  0.86 tons
Train with subway:  2.07 tons
Train with rental:  2.12 tons
Flight with subway: 3.71 tons
Flight with rental:  3.76 tons

2 travelers
Driving: 0.86 tons
Train with subway:  0.72 tons
Train with rental:  0.77 tons
Flight with subway:  1.53 tons
Flight with rental:  1.58 tons

Cost
Driving:  $395 + $300 + $350 = $1,045.00
Train with subway:  $950 + $150 = $1,100.00
Flight with subway:  $1,500 + $150 = $1,650.00

Risk of death
Driving:  1 in 84
Train with subway:  1 in 156,169
Flight with subway:  1 in 5,051

We added to this the stress associated with driving, and the coincident reduction in quality of life.

I included the impact of transportation for both a couple and a family of six in order to highlight that car travel depends heavily on the chosen vehicle, and the other forms by the number of passengers.  Also, I did not take into account the impact of buying carbon offsets because the total cost amounted to less than five percent of any form of travel, and purchasing the offsets has value but not as much as an equivalent actual reduction in emissions.  (I have a family member who refers to them as "environmental indulgences", which does not miss the mark by too much.)

We chose to take the train because it afforded us a large reduction in environmental impact relative to flying (even with taking public transportation while in the city), and it provided lower risk and stress than driving.  Had we decided solely on environmental concerns, we would have driven and then used public transportation while there.  Our choice still resulted in us increasing our annual carbon emissions by twenty-eight percent.  We accepted this increase knowing that without the travel we have the 1/4 the impact of the average American home, and with the travel we have the equivalent of 1/3 the impact of the average American home.

I do recognize the option not mentioned so far: to not travel at all.  For the time being, we look to make as many changes in our personal lives because we like to visit our family that is spread throughout the country.  The communal importance of this time with loved ones justifies the unavoidable emissions associated the travel - at least for now.  I hope that as technology improves for producing fuels - especially for train travel - we can enjoy this time with family without the scale of impact.

For today, better trumps perfect, but I recognize that someday, better than perfect may be required, and will require further sacrifice.  It is a shame that one of the great joys in this world - being able to meet people and experience cultures from all over the world - has such a significant impact on the quality of life of our entire world.

I hope someone gets that anti-matter-powered transporter up and working soon.

Friday, July 26, 2013

Friday Five: July 26, 2013

The priorities we set as a society, as judged by how we organize our economy, favor short-term consumption, and neither long-term nor short-term improvement in the quality of life for all.  I believe, as many others do, that we have an infinite capacity to solve problems, but we do not have infinite time.  Nature will allow us to consume ourselves out of existence if we do not act correctly and quickly.
Is humanity smarter than a protozoan?
"In short, a biological species as dominant as ours, largely free of competitors and still with large stocks of natural capital to burn through, should be expected to hit limits and suffer catastrophes. And it won’t be pretty..."

We have countless examples of situations where our "ingenuity" brought unintended consequences.  This one in particular might spell our undoing, or possibly a catastrophic reduction in our population and quality of life.
Scientists discover what's killing the bees and it's worse than you thought
"When researchers collected pollen from hives on the east coast pollinating cranberry, watermelon and other crops and fed it to healthy bees, those bees showed a significant decline in their ability to resist infection by a parasite called Nosema ceranae. The parasite has been implicated in Colony Collapse Disorder though scientists took pains to point out that their findings do not directly link the pesticides to CCD. The pollen was contaminated on average with nine different pesticides and fungicides though scientists discovered 21 agricultural chemicals in one sample. Scientists identified eight ag chemicals associated with increased risk of infection by the parasite.
Most disturbing, bees that ate pollen contaminated with fungicides were three times as likely to be infected by the parasite. Widely used, fungicides had been thought to be harmless for bees as they’re designed to kill fungus, not insects, on crops like apples."

When making hard choices on where to invest our capital, the energy industry has learned that the money to fix aging coal and nuclear plants is not forthcoming.  This will force many to close, providing an opportunity for renewables to grab market share, but also creating hardship on those communities directly affected.  We need a better plan for transitioning from an energy economy dominated by extraction and the infrastructure based on the promise of "limitless energy" to an economy based on low-entropy energy transfer providing equal service with higher quality of life.  If we do not manage this transition, it will cause much pain.
Californians consider a future without a nuclear plant for a neighbor
"But the effects of the plant’s closing are already reverberating. By September, Southern California Edison will reduce its staff at the plant to 600 employees from 1,500. Electricity prices have increased since the plant, which is about halfway between Los Angeles and San Diego and powered 1.4 million homes, went offline last year.
Last week, when the power went out at Lily Tally’s home in San Clemente, she worried that erratic electricity service — especially in the summer, when demand for power is highest — would become more common. She said she and her husband were now planning to put solar panels on their house."

The last decade has brought us a prime example that our economy does not require energy use, and particularly the use of polluting sources of energy, in order to improve quality of life.  What we once thought a result of the economic downturn, now proves to start prior to that.  Even Americans, the most car-hungry population in the world, are starting to learn that we can have a high quality of life without driving everywhere.
Americans are falling out of love with their cars, and the tipping point was 2004
"As the chart shows, the year 2004 was the US peak for absolute distances driven, and for miles traveled per licensed driver, per household and per registered vehicle. Absolute miles driven in US-registered light vehicles declined by 5% from 2006 through 2011, to 2.6 trillion miles from 2.7 trillion miles. The distance per licensed driver fell to 12,492 miles in 2011 from 13,711 in 2004, an 8.9% decline. Households as a whole were driving 9.4% fewer miles in 2011 as compared with 2004.
Sivak attributes the decline, among other factors, to increased urbanization, greater use of public transportation, and changed driving habits. Look for at least one knock-on trend—the no-car garage."

As the electric vehicle moves into the marketplace, and batteries begin to come from more benign materials, we have the opportunity to create a sharing-society-based transportation system that relies on driverless, electric vehicles shared by a community and among other communities to provide the transportation service at all levels without the risk and cost of individual ownership.  This will allow for faster transitions to new technology, improved local ecosystems, and more resources allocated to life-improving technology
EV sales skyrocketing
"Joann Zhou, an analyst at Argonne National Lab, says that a simple trend analysis would indicate that EVs are on track for growth that significantly outpaces hybrid vehicles. She does this by looking at vehicle sales since introduction. For instance, the Prius was released in 1999, and the first U.S. plug-in vehicles were released at the end of 2010. By counting 31 months forward for each, we can see that EVs are outselling hybrids by a factor of more than two to one. That’s great news for the future of electrification."

Happy Friday!

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Economics describes costs but not values

At our core, we understand that we cannot adequately understand the importance of everything in economic terms.  As a case in point, consider large public parks like Grant Park in Chicago or Central Park in New York City.  Given their location, either would make amazing economic development opportunities, and would fetch prices well above their value as open space.  Businesses would love to incorporate retail outlets into them, urban dwellers would equally welcome the opportunity to live within their boundaries, and cash-strapped cities might have interest in increased tax revenue that could come from developing large portions of them.

But that doesn't happen.

Yes, softball leagues pay permit fees to play in them, and entities like Shakespeare in the Park in New York develop venues within them, but generally, they are large open spaces with public art and a commons that requires no entry fee.  Residents of a city access them freely, bearing only to cost of getting to them.  These parks define major cities and everything that surrounds them, providing a platform from which the city displays itself to the world.

We can look at a space like Central Park and extrapolate the economic value  (as Appleseed, Inc. did for Central Park Conservancy in 2009).  Accountants and economists can document the direct revenue from retail and venues within the park with little dispute dispute.  However, studies often look well beyond those straightforward economic impacts and include real estate value, additional spending by visitors at neighboring businesses, and even public health improvement resulting from the activity available at the park.  We consider the attraction that large public spaces have for tourists and young professionals and that value to a city.  Invariably, we use economic analysis as a rearview mirror to justify something we intuitively know...

We like open space.

We crave it.  We spend ninety percent of our life indoors, and whenever we can, we like to see trees, and flowers, and walk somewhere without a predominance of concrete and steel.  A Nature Conservancy study found a majority of all Americans prefer National Parks to man-made tourist attractions for family vacations.  Our wiring pushes us to live within an outdoor world, and try as we might to perfect the indoors, we find ourselves looking regularly to mimic (poorly) the value of the outdoors.

As we move forward looking to maintain and improve quality of life for the nine billion people who will inhabit this planet, we must remember that although economics does an outstanding job of helping us to distribute scarce resources, it does - at best - and average job of truly reflecting that which we define as important.  Our great urban green spaces serve as an example of decisions made because we know they are right, justified after-the-fact through economic analysis, but which at their core just make sense.

I hope that we find the strength to recognize the value of this type of decision making as equal ...or even superior... to decisions based solely on economic merit.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Thank you!

As of today, this month has already been the most active month for viewership on the Adding Light blog.  Thank you all for your interest and support!  Please tell more people about the blog, and provide as much feedback as you can to help it get even better.

Enjoy the journey,
Joseph F. Clair

If you hate public aid to help the poor buy food, how do you feel aboutusing health insurance?

New York City is experimenting with a program to allow doctors to prescribe fruits and vegetables to patients who are obese.  The think goes that encouraging healthy eating in an affordable way, that patients will get benefits that lower costs of care down the line.


"Patients will receive Health Bucks, $2 coupons that can be used at any of the 142 farmers markets across the city.  Doctors will monitor the patients in the pilot program over the course of four months, and have their weight and body mass index evaluated by their doctor, as well as receive counseling on healthy eating."

Recognizing that food prices push people of limited means into unhealthiest food choices, the program shows much promise.  Although some may scoff at using money from a fund we all pay into to subsidize the poor, the aware will understand that when economics and a lack of education on healthy eating forces the poor into bad eating, we all pay in higher insurance payments.  

Creative ideas such as this can hopefully turn our national health and economy around.  If we start to reward good health and responsible choices, and stop trying to increase the amount of our economy dedicated to treating sickness, we will all be better off financially and physically.

Flashes: July 24, 2013


  • If you are vegan and visiting New York City, accept the fact the unless you are in Park Slope, Brooklyn or Greenwich Village, Manhattan, the only restaurants you are likely to find that have anything other than a salad option are Indian.  
  • Citi Bikes (NYC bike share program) in Brooklyn look like this:  7 am - racks full, 9:30 am - racks empty (stays like that all day), 6:30 pm - racks full.  At $95 for the year for unlimited 1/2-hour rides (as opposed to $112 per month for an unlimited-ride Metrocard) it looks as if Brooklynites have found a preferred mode of public transportation.
  • After three weeks of incorporating fresh juices into my diet, I have an observation:  there is no redemptive value to celery in a juice that outweighs the heinousness of the taste....except maybe if it granted me superpowers, and even then I'd have to think about it.
  • Only 45% of New York City residents own a car compared with 72% of Chicagoans.  The average body-mass index of an Illinoisan is 27.1, while residents of New York state on average come in at 24.5....the relative position of these two numbers is not a coincidence. New Yorkers walk everywhere.
  • The password to know whether someone is truly a Chicagoan is to have them pronounce Throop Street.  In New York City, it's Houston or DeKalb.

Enjoy the journey!



Monday, July 22, 2013

The high price of grocery shopping local


As consumers, we face a daunting gauntlet of concerns with how and where we spend our money.  Should we spend only in our financial interest, and shop diligently for the lowest price?  Should we concern ourselves with shopping locally?  When purchasing food, should we care about ingredients or farming practices?  This spring, I set about the task of trying to answer some of these question for my own household purchasing, and I found a surprising answer:  the cost of shopping locally significantly exceeded the cost of purchasing my typical products at not only a warehouse store (which one would expect) but also at a national, high-end retailer. 

I should make one parameter clear before we discuss some of the details: all of the items on my list were organic (food stuffs), grass fed beef, or products made with high recycled content/all-natural ingredients.  Our family already made the commitment to know as much as we can about what goes into our food, and ensure – to the greatest extent possible – that we had a level of comfort with the growing practices that went into what we eat.  Also, we have committed to reducing or eliminating waste, and purchasing household cleaning and personal care items with a minimum of unnatural chemical ingredients.  This analysis does not seek to compare that level of shopping with what one might call “conventional” shopping.  We already accept that where there is a premium we will pay it because the product improves our quality of life.  That decision is a personal one that no one can make for another, and I have no desire to discuss that topic here.  What I hoped to find, was given that decision, what choice of retailer type makes sense.  (Names have been withheld to focus on the results and not the individual companies.) 

Our options include:
  • A national warehouse chain that sells items in bulk, with relatively few locations.  This choice requires us to drive eight miles one-way, but through local traffic on arterial streets.  Our total round-trip can take anywhere from forty-five minutes to over an hour.  
  • A national, premium food chain selling organic, local, and fair trade products.  This also requires driving, but the travel uses expressways and although a longer distance, takes only about thirty to forty-five minutes for a round trip.  
  • Our locally owned and operated supermarket that has a comparable stock to the recognizable national “conventional” supermarkets, but has added a significant amount of organic food products.  The store sits two miles from our house, and the round-trip through the neighborhood takes about ten minutes.


In order to make an accurate comparison, my wife and I visited all three stores on the same weekend in March, and found – where possible – the same brand of product.  Where a particular brand was unavailable, we used a brand of comparable quality.  In some cases, organic food or items with environmental attributes were not available, so we made the best selection possible.  This affected only a small number of products, and did not significantly influence the results.  We chose the following items for the analysis:

½ gallon of lowfat milk
½ gallon of soy/almond milk
1 dozen organic, cage-free eggs
½ gallon of premium, non-organic orange juice
½ gallon of organic juice smoothie drink
6 servings of Greek yogurt
2 bags of kettle-cooked chips
2 pound of mixed, frozen veggies
12 individual-serving coffee cups
2 bags of natural popcorn
1 box of organic cinnamon cereal
24 ounces of 100% maple syrup
2 pounds of organic whole-wheat flour
1 pound of organic cane sugar
6 boxes of natural macaroni and cheese
14 ounces of vegetable broth
16 ounces of tomato & basil sauce
1 pound of organic long-grain brown rice
1 pound of organic quinoa
1 can of organic diced tomatoes
12 ounces of organic mixed greens
3 pounds of organic apples
1 pound of organic broccoli
½ pound of grass-fed beef
6 ounces of natural moisturizing lotion
8 ounces of premium sunscreen
30 count of 100% recycled paper towel
2 packs of 100% recycled paper bathroom tissue
30 ounces of high efficiency, non-phosphorous-containing laundry detergent
12 ounces of non-phosphorous-containing dishwater powder

Admittedly, this is not a complete list of every item needed every time, and some of the items are irregular purchases (such as detergent), but the analysis takes into account the variability and tries to spread the purchases out over what would be an average week.  If you have an interest in the detailed cost-per-unit for each item, you will find it here.

On purely a financial basis, the average weekly cost for all of these items at the warehouse store costs just under $145, with a comparable cost of $168 and $188 at the national premium store and the local store, respectively.  This result makes sense in our typical understanding of the economies of warehouse stores versus other outlets, but the difference between the national store (notorious for having higher prices) and the local store surprised me. 

To determine how incorporating the environmental impact influenced the value proposition, I looked at the cost of gas to travel to the three stores, then using Department of Energy data, computed the carbon impact for the gasoline, and finally applied a social cost of carbon to the pollution generated to determine if the distance travelled shifted the net cost in any way.  Using a 40 mpg car as the mode of travel, I arrived at the following:



Even with a cost of gasoline at the peak of this season ($4.50) and a social cost of carbon at the high limit of analysis ($266/ton), the costs change by less than one percent, with the national retailer bearing the greatest increase, eliminating about eight percent of the difference between it and the local store.  Even with this taken into account, our family would spend about $800 more a year shopping at our local retailer for these items than going to the national, high-end supermarket.

Taking a look at one last factor, the effect on the local economy, the supermarket industry does not have a similar business model to most local small business, so the impact of a dollar spent does not have the same impact locally.  According to the Food Marketing Institute, the typical supermarket spends over seventy percent of its revenue on purchasing goods.  Since our neighborhood produces none of those goods, that capital leaves our community no matter where we shop.  Of the remaining, nearly thirty percent, between one and two percent is profit, about eleven percent covers employee salaries, and the remainder goes to various operating and maintenance expenses.  In the best-case scenario, somewhere between ten and fifteen percent of the revenue (including the salaries and some maintenance and operating expenses that might go to a local contractor or service) would remain in the community.  That means, of the approximately $9,800 we would spend at the local store each year, about $1,100 might remain in the community.  Looking at the savings at the warehouse store, we could donate $1,100 to an organization that puts capital into the local economy, and still keep around $1,000 per year in our pocket.  Even compared to the national store, we could donate $1,100 per year, and pay about a $250 premium while getting access to all the brands we like without having to sacrifice because the local store does not carry them.

Analyses such as this can vary based upon one’s point of view about what which items to choose, and the balance of factors used.  The warehouse store does not have grass-fed meat in any reasonably priced quantity, so someone whose house consumes significant amounts of beef would find their total bill better at the national market.  Also, the warehouse does not have the variety of produce that the national store carries.  What remains consistent in most permutations is that the local store always has less buying power for the consumer.  This loss of buying power does have a benefit, however.  Over the course of a year, we would spend over forty fewer hours driving to and from the store if we shop locally versus going to the warehouse store, and about twenty-five fewer hours than going to the national retailer.  Whether that balances out the money saved is a personal choice, and one we will ultimately consider when we decide how we want to behave going forward. 

In the end, the environmental impact of shopping outside the neighborhood does not significantly affect the economics – even with a liberal pricing of the environmental impact.  The value saved shopping outside the neighborhood also provides so much value that the consumer could use some of the savings to directly make up the local economic impact.  Lastly, the variety of options available – for the conscientious consumer – lags at the local store compared with the other options.  Shopping local as a general practice has its benefits, but when it comes to groceries, the current marketplace for our area does not favor the local store. 

Comparison of warehouse, national, and local grocers


Note:  Basis is the amount (in the units shown) used to create the total cost.


Friday, July 19, 2013

Friday Five: July 19, 2013

Some might call this "my birthday edition" as I turn 43 this Sunday, so I thought I would try to personalize things a bit by looking at this week's news with a very personal take.
We here in Chicago are enjoying a slightly milder summer than last year, but the east coast has been especially hard hit by heat this month. In addition to the toll heat takes on the population, the extreme heat affects water temperatures and flows, which has a huge impact on the energy and building industries. We do not hear often about the "intermittency of nuclear", preferring to speak more about the variability of renewable energy. News this week about the temperature of cooling water at nuclear facilities highlights the water dependency of conventional forms of electricity generation. Although many lump nuclear with renewables because of the low-carbon nature of the fuel source, it still has major issues with pollutants, risk, and especially water availability.
Warming bay water threatens to shut down Plymouth nuclear reactor
"The Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that the water drawn from Cape Cod Bay to cool the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station be below 75 degrees. On Tuesday afternoon, the water exceeded that mark for about 90 minutes, forcing the plant to reduce power output temporarily."

The economic case for renewables has grown stronger every year of the last decade, and this week at least one energy provider saw long-term strength in wind energy over natural gas on economic considerations alone. This represents a huge milestone as natural-gas-based electricity sits at all-time lows, the costs will do nothing but increase, while wind-based electricity will continue to decrease for some time.
Xcel to buy 700 megawatts of NextEra, Infinity wind power
"The deal will save customers $590 million in fuel expenses over 20 years and the wind farms will generate power at costs lower than most of Xcel’s natural gas plants, according to Riley Hill, president and chief executive officer of Southwestern Public Service.
'We are making these acquisitions purely on economics and the savings we can deliver to our customers,' Hill said in the statement."

Solar-energy-generated electricity continues to show economic value in the southern half of the United States, even with resistance from utilities. It will take another five-to-seven years to make inroads up here in the northern half of the country (quicker if utilities are forced to treat individual generators as others in the marketplace), but the momentum favors the solar industry. Of even greater import, the conversation about renewable energy no longer appears to be simply a "liberal vs. conservative" fight, but one of industrial economic interest. Conservatives see renewable energy for what it is, a great economic opportunity for the country that gives people greater freedom and personal responsibility. It appeals to people from all political ideologies.
Tea Partiers fight over solar power in Georgia, and the solar fans win
"In Georgia on Thursday, the Tea Party scored a victory against the Tea Party by helping push through a plan requiring the state’s largest electric utility to increase its capacity for solar power."
California solar installations jump 26% in 2012
"According to a California Solar Initiative progress report by the Public Utilities Commission, those additions represent a 26% growth from 2011. The state is now equipped to produce 1,629 megawatts of solar energy across completed projects at nearly 168,000 sites -- enough to power 150,000 homes."

In my senior year of college, I spent a week in California on a university-sanctioned trip. We stayed with university alumni, and three of us lucked out to stay with a recent alum. We decided to go for pizza and beer one night, and since he lived on the beach, we took bikes down to the joint. Needless to say, it was an interesting ride back to his place. I do remember how popular biking to that place was, and am not surprised to see the value noted in the article. As an added benefit, the cost of driving cars drains money from communities, as few benefit from the money spent on the purchase or fueling of a vehicle. Bicycles have no direct fuel cost, freeing people to spend more on local businesses. Look past the headline to note multiple types of businesses that benefit.
Chicago's bike infrastructure good news for bars
"There are few studies in the US that document mode, expenditures and frequency of trips. A survey conducted in a commercial corridor in San Luis Obispo revealed that consumers that arrive by bike spend similar amounts yet visit more frequently than those who arrive by car. Similar results were found in downtown San Francisco, where people traveling by foot or transit spent less per visit at shops and restaurants than people in automobiles, but visited about twice as often spending more per month."

I have little tolerance for blatant injustice, but on environmental matters I consider myself passionate and determined, but not judgmental. I have worked with and around those who choose to shame others into compliance rather than working with others to find common ground. I have noticed without fail that long-term progress comes from Ghandian patience with the concerns - real or imagined...and of equal validity - that people have with change. These concerns come from a natural instinct to protect ourselves from psychological (the inability to handle the thought that we harm another unintentionally), or from lack of knowledge, or from personal experience. All of these require us to engage in dialogue, confirm or adjust our own views, and find ways to make progress. If I do not behave as I perceive I do, I certainly endeavor to act with such patience.
Quick study: Leave nagging in the bag
"The researchers theorize that somewhere between the produce aisle and the cash register, those shoppers who had confessed their previous plastic transgressions found a way to justify their past behavior, and thus felt no need to change it."

Happy Friday!

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Flashes: July 17, 2013


  • Nathanael Johnson has a thought-provoking story series looking at genetic engineering in foods and trying to get at some truths about the industry.  The information is good, but has been criticized as focusing too narrowly.  I also recommend a talk by Dr. Thierry Vrain on the subject...especially for a discussion of toxicity and gene pollution.  Of particular interest in Dr. Vrain's talk is the statement that most industry-funded research shows no issue with engineered crops and most independently-funded or government-funded research shows significant concerns.  I do not yet have a definitive answer to whether GMO-based crops are substantially equivalent to non-GMO...but in the absence of proof, I am personally proceeding with as much caution as is practical.
  • It is so cool to see a Chicago-based architect getting national recognition for smart architecture.  Jeanne Gang is a force of nature, and if you don't know about her...read up.
  • A friend once joked while enjoying appetizers at a local Italian-themed restaurant that the developer of the fried mozzarella stick must have had stock in the cardio-vascular surgery industry.  Only someone like that would think that taking a solid chunk of cheese and deep frying it would make sense.  I kinda have that same thinking when it comes to fracking....although I'm not sure what industry would really benefit from increases in seismic activity.  To think that drilling into the earth, setting off explosive charges, then pushing fluid back into the well would NOT lead to instability underground was either gross negligence or really hopeful thinking.
  • I will be interested to see how France's decree that all non-residential lighting be off from 1am to 7am (or one hour after the last worker leaves until 7am if businesses close after midnight) ends up working.  I know someone who worked for a firm in the AON Center that used to leave all its lights on 24/7/365 so that their clients would never see them "not working".  If the policy does deliver on better public health (because of darker nights for sleeping), lower energy use and cost to taxpayers, and lower carbon emissions, would you trade the freedom to be inefficient for the benefits of being forced to behave responsibly?
Enjoy the journey!

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Time for sports teams to be environmental all stars

I make no excuses for two beliefs:  that baseball is the greatest game ever invented, and that by 2020 we could have a country powered completely by non-polluting forms of energy (and yes, nuclear energy pollutes).  Professional sports franchises have begun to address, over the past couple of years with some prodding from the NRDC, their environmental impact.  In 2011, Ian Gordon posed the question as to whether stadium sports can really be green, and to date, we do not have a full answer to that question.  The answer to the question should be yes, and although all major sports are making progress, it has not been fast enough.

In 2010, several sports franchises in cooperation with NRDC and other partners formed the the Green Sports Alliance to:
"help sports teams, venues and leagues enhance their environmental performance. Alliance members represent over 170 sports teams and venues from 15 different sports leagues."
Sports franchises face significant challenges: their stadiums use more energy each year than many cities, and generate waste at rates many times that of residential neighborhoods.  They have innate advantages, though, from control over 100% of their operations to strong influence over local government to huge buying power to intermittent usage.  These advantages, especially in cities where several major sports franchises reside, mean that major sports franchises can and should be at the forefront of zero-impact operations (along with major universities that have sports stadiums).

In their report on the greening of sports stadiums, the NRDC highlights major events and stadiums that have gone beyond talk and delivered on renewable energy installations in addition to purchases, on waste reduction or zero waste events, on purchasing products that are benign to the environment.  The fact that some have achieved these feats means that all can.  The time has come for our cities, states, and the sports fans within them accept nothing less.  Although teams have significant leverage, cities and states own portions of several stadiums.  Those at a minimum should meet or exceed what the Eagles have done in Philadelphia, for example.  The NRDC should push leagues to adopt a zero-energy/zero-waste/zero-impact standard for all stadiums by 2020, and the government should back that up with a requirement by 2025 (at the latest...these could respectively be 2015 and 2020).

Sports defines so much in our lives: our language, our culture, our conversation.  We celebrate the military at our events, teams make great efforts to support our youth, and teams work with cities to provide inner city infrastructure for sports.  Although it seems to be asking too much to ask sporting venues to lead the charge on environmental issues as well, it only makes sense.  Given their impact, their resources, and their influence, major sports franchises have the capacity to lead more so than any other single industry except maybe higher education.  Fans will not necessarily demand it because sports is supposed to provide a diversion from what troubles us.  It is up to our civic leaders and the franchises themselves to take the lead.

I do not plan to boycott baseball until it steps forward, but I will be all that more proud of taking my seat in left field with a beer and a veggie dog to watch my Sox knowing that nothing about my enjoyment of the game takes away from the quality of life of another.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Net zero buildings cost nothing

"Why did the team not design a no-collapse building, or at least close to it?"
"We could not afford it, but we achieved better than average stability."

This is a summary of a conversation I had with a professional colleague recently regarding a new school building that just received recognition for the "greenness" of its design.  The owner, builder, and design team all celebrated the achievement since it was the first school in the state to be so regarded.  The only difference between the crux of our actual conversation and the quotes above are that my question was not about structural integrity, but rather it went something like this:

"Why did the team not design a fire-proof building, or at least close to it?"
"We could not afford it, but we achieved better than average protection."

As you might guess, that was not quite right either.  Our discussion did not center on structural integrity or fire protection, but rather on the energy footprint of the building.  I have noticed that every time I ask a design team about why they did not exceed the "standard of care" for energy performance, they go back to the cost crutch, even without actually looking at the costs for delivering a building that relies on almost no off-site forms of energy transfer.  If we were to ask the same question about structural integrity or fire prevention, we would never rely on the "we cannot afford it" excuse.  It is fairly easy to understand why:

No one associated with an individual building considers the damaging impacts of energy use to be their responsibility, therefore it is not a priority.

Even local authorities responsible for building codes allow everyone "off the hook" to an extent by creating incrementally better standards, but ones that codify the need for external energy resources for generations to come.  Owners point the finger at municipalities and claim they only have an obligation to meet the code at the time the building is built, designers play loose with their profession's ethics and cite that they must protect health and the environment, but only to the extent required by law, and cities cite the costs to business and local economy if they enact too onerous of regulation.  

No one is responsible, everyone has a reason, and nothing moves forward fast enough.  It continues because no one can be sued, no insurance company will come after them for the ten to fifteen thousand deaths in the United States each year due to coal pollution alone, no public outcry against individual building owners has taken root, and fossil fuel energy companies have cash resources to influence media and government officials.  Compared with the approximately thirty-five hundred deaths each year due to fire (mostly residential) and the total of fewer than one-hundred deaths due to major building-associated collapse in the US over the past half-century, non-renewable energy use causes much greater loss of life without any consequence that would move the public or governments to act.

Do buildings that use no imported energy have to cost more than buildings that do not meet that energy performance?  The real answer is that no one really knows.  For a building that was not planned from the start to have energy performance meet the same level of care as structural systems or fire prevention, adding on systems or technologies will add cost.  If the plan from the beginning includes minimizing all energy loads to a level that will allow on-site energy systems or local, utility-scale renewable energy to pick up the rest, then there is no evidence to suggest it will.  Take, for example, four high school projects built over the past three years:  High Tech High in Chula Vista, CA, Kensignton High in Philadelphia, Sarah Goode STEM Academy in Chicago, and Greensburg Schools in Kansas.  All four projects targeted performance as a green or high-performance building with the following results:


(Note: Goode is an estimate pending full year's performance data.  All others are per submittal to AIA Top Ten competition.)

As we see, there is no rhyme or reason linking the project energy performance and cost of the project.  Although a small data set, it does show that how a project team and owner approach a project has much to do with the ultimate cost (in addition to location, market forces).  On none of these project, though, was a financial assessment done to determine how far the team should go to prevent building collapse, or to prevent death from fire.  The teams may have tried to convince the owner to adopt more strategies that would improve performance, but all of them had to overcome the "capital versus operating" hurdle, which few technologies and strategies do over the time horizon used even by municipalities in building their own buildings.

So is there no hope?

Not quite. 

There are several ways to turn the market around immediately and have net zero buildings on the market within five years (the typical planning horizon for new building projects), and place them on the same level of priority as structural and fire prevention systems.

1.  Require each owner/design team to produce an energy prospectus the same way they have to provide a financial prospectus to funding entities.

No bonding agency or lending institution would ever think of providing the funding for a project without a detailed understanding of the finances of the owner and their planned use for the building.  Requiring a similar level of preparation on the energy systems and sources associated with a building will provide a foundation for the design team and ownership to make decisions.  When designers and owners focus on energy, the buildings have better performance.  Coupling the assessment with a default understanding that buildings will use no more energy than is available on-site unless they can show cause, and we have a no-cost way to drive the market toward efficiency.

A similar program at the Chicago Public Schools last decade challenged designers to beat the ASHRAE 90.1 standard by over thirty-five percent (35%) or provide sufficient explanation for why.  After the program went into place, almost every design resulted in at least a thirty percent (30%) improvement, whereas buildings built prior to the program performed at barely ten percent (10%) better.  It cost no more to build the building at that performance level, either in soft costs or construction costs.

2.  Require owners to have either a utility contract for energy consuming systems or an escrow account (endowment for non-profits) to cover energy bills.

The concept of raising the money for operations as part of the fundraising for a building project comes from the university building world.  This accomplishes two goals: solves the "capital vs. operations" problem allowing the owner to take advantage of future savings, and it ensures that the facilities staff will have the resources to maintain building performance.  In the for-profit sector, the requirement of owners having a contract for energy supply and maintenance of energy consuming systems at the planning stage would accomplish the same function.  The third-party would have incentive to suggest ways to improve energy performance of the building in order to maximize their profit.  Either option in its sector would provide a market-based opportunity to prioritize energy performance.

3.  Hold architects and engineers accountable for the effects of energy consumption on the country's population as a whole.

On the surface, holding design professionals to take into account the totality of human life when meeting their ethical responsibilities seems akin to shooting the messenger, if design professionals do not have the responsibility and authority to make these decisions, then who else has the ability to make them.  We count on doctors to act always in protection of life, and requiring architects and engineers to do the same meets the same goal.  Although "cost perception" presents a huge obstacle to designing net zero buildings, the fact that owners carry that perception into negotiations means that even architects that want to design net zero buildings have to compromise their goals to get work.   Providing a backstop to the profession in developing their program with owners will deliver better building designs without misguided regulation.

4.  Create an insurance product that building owners pay into based upon the amount and mix of energy the building consumes.

The insurance industry directly pays for the issues caused by fossil fuels use, including property damage, increased healthcare, and early loss of life.  Allowing the insurance industry to recoup their costs through a reinsurance product (insurance for insurance companies) that identifies those buildings that contribute most to the problems of fossil fuel use would then create another market incentive to develop better buildings.  Owners and developers could receive insurance underwriting during the design process providing guidance on the projected future costs to insure.  In much the same way fire insurance drives building codes and standards of care, this energy insurance would drive innovation and performance from a true market force and not a government mandate.

We have the knowledge to design net zero energy buildings and communities.  The only thing keeping us from turning this knowledge into reality is placing the lives and losses associated with fossil fuels as a high priority to us.  Our economy reflects our priorities, and when we prioritize life we accept the costs associated with whatever protects life.  We also then find ways to minimize the costs without sacrificing the affect to life.  One thing for certain, we cannot afford the costs of continuing fossil fuel use in our daily lives.  The only question is where we put our priorities going forward.