Flashes: July 31, 2013

• I talk frequently about the huge concern we should all have about not only adding 2 billion people to the planet in 40 years, but also adding another 3 billion of our existing world population to the rolls of those living a "developed" lifestyle.  Looking at the world development indicators, Chinese per capita energy use doubled between 2000 and 2010, from around 900 kg of oil equivalent (kgoe) to around 1800 kgoe.  The current American per capital energy use sits around 7,200 kgoe.  What happens if a billion people quadruple their energy consumption in the next forty years?
• Those same set of indicators show that after a "re-peak" in American usage at about 8,000 kgoe in 2000 (the highest peak since 1960 was seen in 1978 at nearly 8,500 kgoe before dropping to 7,200 kgoe in 1983), we saw a sharp decline from 2007 to 2009 by nearly 10% from 7,800 kgoe to 7,100 kgoe.  We are hovering there over the past two years, and hopefully we can continue moving downward and join other developed nations at a level near 2,000 kgoe where renewable energy should be able to cost effectively handle our needs.
• As of 2011, a total of 36 states sit above that average of 7,200 kgoe (including my home state of Illinois).  It is an odd combination of Northeastern states (NY, MA, NJ, NH), warm weather states (FL, AZ, HI), and traditionally energy conscious states (CA, OR) that make up the states with below-average usage.  Right now, with absolutely no change in quality of life, our average should have little problem dropping to 4,600 kgoe (NY), 5,200 kgoe (CA) or even 5,500 kgoe (FL).
• We have been hearing about how the energy market for fossil fuels is changing thanks to fracking for natural gas.  It is interesting to note that after reaching a peak in July 2008 of nearly $11 per thousand cubic feet peaking after a climb from 2000 (not surprisingly coinciding with the rise in Chinese energy use), the price plummeted to just under $3 in 14 months.  Since then, the increase in production dropped the price to under $2 in 2012, but that price has since increased by 75% to nearly $3.50.  The next three years hold the key to whether this $2-4 gas is the norm, or whether, as populations increase and demands on fuels increase, prices rebound to $10.

Enjoy the journey!