Residential electricity use continues to climb despite our best efforts

A recent post in the Today in Energy section of eia.gov discussing increases in air conditioning usage, especially in the South region, got me thinking about our overall electricity usage in this country.  Compared with 1980, refrigerators use less than half the electricity, as do home central air conditioning systems, and light bulbs use - in some cases - less than one-third the electricity as their older counterparts.  Combine this with newer homes replacing older ones, swapping more efficient homes for less efficient ones, and we should find ourselves in the middle of an energy reduction bonanza.

But, we do not.

Even though our average US home uses less electricity per square foot than its counterpart in the late 1990s, our total residential electricity usage has climbed at a consistent rate since 1980 of between 16 billion kWh and 20 billion kWh per year.  Even if we assume that this rate will continue to drop over the coming decades, if that decline happens no faster than over the past 30 years, we will continue to increase electricity usage in the nation for the better part of the next century.  Why is that?

Because there are more of us, taking up more space, trying to stay cooler, and consuming more entertainment.

Thirty years ago, the dominant energy needs in a house were heating and lighting.  Lighting energy needs have dropped, as has electricity needed for refrigerators, but the amount of electricity for air conditioning has risen significantly.  Additionally, we have added televisions, computers, and other electronic diversions to our households.  Combine this with a twenty-percent increase in the average home size over the past thirty years, and an increase in population of over thirty-five percent, and we have the perfect storm for cyclical increases in electricity use for year to come.

Even as we add renewable sources of electricity at ever increasing rates, these additions do little to stop increased demand for fossil-fuel-generated electricity.  The only way to get these increases under control, and reverse them before they spiral out of control, is to get innovative with our approach to electricity usage.  This includes, at a minimum:

1. Working with utilities to use residential and community solar (in South and near-South regions) and geoexchange (in more temperate climate zones) to provide air conditioning.  Cooling needs coincide with days of sun, and in the South, where sun shines nearly year-round, adding solar to every house with AC with enough capacity to supply the AC will take that load increase off the grid.  In the next band of climate zones to the north, air conditioning demand drops, but so does solar access.  At the same time, heating needs climb, so geoexchange systems allow for heat from the summer to be stored below ground and pumped back out in the winter to save on heating requirements as well.  In all cases, since the utility benefits most from the reduced infrastructure needs, and is in the best position to provide financing and maintenance, it makes sense for those institutions to install and manage the new systems.
2. Finding ways to live as high a quality of life as we do now in less space.  The generation of Americans currently in their 20s and early 30s have already slowed the trend toward moving away from urban areas toward more "spacious" suburban ones.  The financial benefit of ditching the car in favor of public transportation or walking, the close proximity to amenities and culture, and the reduced commutes have stemmed - possibly only temporarily - the growth in housing.  Unless someone wants to suggest population controls (and I am not ready to), we will have more people and more housing, and if housing size does not reverse its annual growth rate of 1-2% per year, we will have to more than match that rate to see any appreciable difference.
3. Getting outside.  Although more efficient electronics, with more cloud-based services (and greener cloud computing and data center facilities) will have moderate effects on electricity usage, the most efficient TV is the one not turned on.  Ditch the extra TV, the second game console, and the subwoofer, and make a commitment to spending even two hours a week outside not using in-home entertainment.  Since 1950, time spent in social activities and volunteering has dropped by over 75%, while entertainment time has skyrocketed.  If we do not reverse the trend, then we commit ourselves to an ever-increasing reliance on electricity - and whatever consequences may come from it.

Electricity generation, dominated by the use of fossil fuels, poses a threat to our health and safety.  Although we have made strides in efficiency of equipment, we have not made great strides in our taste for energy-driven lifestyles.  We must understand that small, incremental improvements do not decrease overall usage, they merely slow the growth.  With populations rising, and the threat of home size continuing to increase, we have only a small window before our electricity use spirals out of control.

We know how to solve it...we only lack the motivation.

From eia.gov, residential energy survey

1980 81.6 million households (227.22) consumed 9,100 kWh per year (3,268 per capita) 
     in an average of 1,646 sf (5.53 kWh/sf)...total of 742,560 million kWh.
1997 101.5 million households (266.49) consumed 10,219 kWh per year (3,892 per capita) 
     in an average of 1,750 sf (5.84 kWh/sf)...total of 1,037,228 million kWh.
2009 113.6 million households (308.75) consumed 11,320 kWh per year (4,165 per capita) 
     in an average of 1,970 sf (5.75 kWh/sf)...total of 1,285,952 million kWh.

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