At peak or not at peak...that is the question

This week, Richard Heinberg offered a glimpse at his new book Snake Oil: How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future in a Grist article, stating:

"[Fossil fuel production] analysis that takes into account the remaining number of possible drilling sites, as well as the high production decline rates in typical tight oil and shale gas wells, yields a different forecast: Production will indeed peak before 2020, but then it will likely fall much more rapidly than either the industry or the official agencies forecast."

Mr. Heinberg makes no apologies for being a Peakist (one who believes we we have reached the peak availability of fossil fuels), and raises some valid arguments on both sides of the issue.  Prices in the early 2000s rose more sharply than expected, especially as per capita energy usage in China doubled...supporting those on the Peakist side of the debate.  Since the explosion of fracking (occurring coincidently with the economic turndown), accessible reserves of natural gas and oil have increased faster than previous years...supporting those who believe we have plenty of reserves to get us through.

So who is right?

Looking over the trend of reserves per capita over the past thirty-two years, (other than an outlier due to questionable coal reserve reporting in 1998) the last twenty years have seen a decline of around 40%.  This trend saw a leveling off starting in 2009, although it cannot yet be determined if this came from increased production due to fracking or decreased consumption from the economic downturn. 

The trend in per capita world energy use continues to climb, as does population.  The compounding effect of these increases requires that reserve development needs to greatly exceed the rate for the past thirty years in order to keep up with demand.  Price increases due to shortages can provide incentive for more development, but may not necessarily cause a fast enough response to make a difference. 

It would take an unprecedented change in reserves (or population) to restore us to the peak in 1990.  The Peakists are correct that we have reached the peak and past it.  Everything we do from here on out determines how fast we proceed to the point where we do not have enough fossil fuel energy to meet our needs.

Let us hope that when that point comes, we have already found a way to live a high quality of life without them.