Friday Five: March 21, 2014 Limits to Growth?

This week, there is only one story that I think we all need to take the time to read, dissect, analyze, and pick a course of action to address. The link's author took the most balanced and factual approach to the story, and I recommend it as a starting point (note he has one factual discrepancy addressed in the next link). The study notes that throughout history, civilizations have collapsed...even highly ordered ones. Signals in our patterns of consumption can help identify weaknesses.
Society is doomed, scientists claim
"The researchers used the HANDY model to analyze three different social scenarios: an egalitarian society with no elite class; an equitable society with workers and non-workers (students, retirees, disabled persons); and an unequal society with a robust class of elites.
The egalitarian and equitable societies could produce a sustainable civilization and avoid collapse, even with a high ratio of non-workers. Social collapse was more likely after people overreached and depleted natural resources. Importantly, even without any social stratification, collapse could occur if a society exhausted its natural resources.
In the unequal society, however, collapse was almost unavoidable — and these were the HANDY scenarios that mirrored our current globalized society."

Most coverage of the press release for the study mentioned that NASA funded it. Although NASA funded the development of the tool through another study, it did not fund the research that led to the conclusion about societal inequality.
NASA clarifies its role in new civilization collapse study
"NASA officials released this statement on the study today (March 20): 'A soon-to-be published research paper, 'Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies' by University of Maryland researchers Safa Motesharrei and Eugenia Kalnay, and University of Minnesota's Jorge Rivas, was not solicited, directed or reviewed by NASA. It is an independent study by the university researchers utilizing research tools developed for a separate NASA activity. As is the case with all independent research, the views and conclusions in the paper are those of the authors alone. NASA does not endorse the paper or its conclusions.'"

The study ties back to concepts presented in the 1970s by MIT researchers working through the Club of Rome. In their work, Limits to Growth, they identified patterns of consumption and activity that would lead to collapse of civilization. It is worth reading the entire work.
A synopsis: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
"These are symptoms of a world in overshoot, where we are drawing on the world’s resources faster than they can be restored, and we are releasing wastes and pollutants faster than the Earth can absorb them or render them harmless. They are leading us toward global environ- mental and economic collapse—but there may still be time to address these problems and soften their impact."

I think it important to hear multiple sides of an issue from learned people with something to say, no axe to grind, and a relatively clear way of stating their position. I disagree with Mr. Lomborg on many issues, and find some of his analysis incomplete, but having read his books and articles, I find his approach fair and reasoned. In order to put some perspective on the predictions of collapse from resource consumption, I recommend reading this post and other work of his.
The limits to panic
"The Limits of Growth got it so wrong because its authors overlooked the greatest resource of all: our own resourcefulness. Population growth has been slowing since the late 1960’s. Food supply has not collapsed (1.5 billion hectares of arable land are being used, but another 2.7 billion hectares are in reserve). Malnourishment has dropped by more than half, from 35% of the world’s population to under 16%."

For another analysis, this time one that verifies the predictions of Limits to Growth, I present the following. I am less familiar with Mr. Turner's whole body of work, but find the presentation of data clear and reasonable. I recommend that everyone take the time to understand the fundamental factors affecting out ability to sustain high quality of life with continued growth of population and consumption (as less developed countries strive to gain the high quality of life we enjoy). It quite literally is a matter of life and death.
Looking back on the limits of growth
"Turner compared real-world data from 1970 to 2000 with the business-as-usual scenario. He found the predictions nearly matched the facts. 'There is a very clear warning bell being rung here,' he says. 'We are not on a sustainable trajectory.'"

Happy Friday!