Imagine a world where you step out your front door, walk to
the curb, and step into a car that had waited for your arrival. The car takes you to your office while you
ride comfortably checking your email and reading the morning news. You get out of the vehicle at your office,
close the door, and step into your building.
Sounds like the story of a CEO making his way to the office, doesn’t
it? Except there are three differences:
1.
The car is not yours.
2.
You are not a CEO, you’re just a regular middle
class worker.
3.
The car drove itself.
For fans of Star Trek, we have already seen this driverless
technology in action in a commercial with Leonard Nimoy and Zachary Quinto in
which the new prototype driverless Audi features prominently. The development of communication technology,
low-cost proximity sensors, and fast-acting computer technology combine to give
us a car that will virtually eliminate accidents, completely eliminate drunken
driving, and lead us to a future where the only vehicles are high-efficiency
ones.
Although the first two benefits make sense – fewer chances
for human error and no chance that someone who has been drinking will drive
will certainly make life safer, the third might not be as apparent. Why does a driverless vehicle necessarily
mean that we will guarantee a fleet of higher-performing vehicles? Truth is, on the surface it does not. However a natural economic extensions of
driverless vehicles will lead to higher efficiency: ubiquitous car-sharing.
Driverless vehicles will have some imbedded efficiency to
them. A control system that picks
acceleration and velocity based upon the most efficient use of resources will
top what most humans can consistently do.
Plus, the communication and navigation technology will always find the
most efficient route instead of the one chosen by human habit. Also, driverless vehicles will cause fewer
traffic jams once fully adopted. Without
a minimal need for traffic signals, cars will self-regulate cross traffic, and
without speeding and accidents, jams will occur less frequently if at all. Some of the largest causes of inefficient
vehicle operation fall to the wayside with driverless cars.
More importantly however, an industry replete with companies
providing driverless car service will drive innovation for more and more fuel
efficient vehicles. Currently, the
average car owner uses their vehicle less than 10% of the time they own it. Most of the time it sits in their garage,
driveway, or street parking idly waiting for use. In a car-sharing, driverless vehicle economy,
the cars run at about 60-90% of their capacity.
This has the effect of reducing resource consumption in the making of
the vehicles, and it incentivizes a significant increase in efficiency. When a business operates a vehicle for large
portions of the day, the fuel costs increase dramatically from the use of the
typical car owner. Some average
consumers see only a small benefit from an extra couple of miles per gallon,
but a fleet operator will see even small percentages increase their bottom
line. One only need look at modern taxi
service in our urban centers for proof of this.
The two most popular vehicle types are the minivan (for capacity) and
the hybrid vehicle (for fuel efficiency).
If someone produces a hybrid minivan, I expect we will see them out
there as well. Taxis operate
significantly more than the standard commuter vehicle, and the fuel savings
signifies how the industry approaches efficiency differently from the average
consumer.
We are over a dozen years away from seeing significant
penetration of driverless technology and especially car-sharing systems
associated with it. When we get there,
we will see the fuel use per GDP drop significantly, and with it, the prices of
fuel. That drop in price will reduce the
ability of oil companies to drill for new, much more difficult-to-reach
sources. The sooner we can make this
happen, the sooner we will have a higher quality of life, more lives saved, and
better air quality.
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